DES MOINES — As he accepted his victory in the Iowa caucuses Thursday night, Senator Barack Obama presented his presidential candidacy as a vessel to wipe away partisan divisions, transcend the boundaries of race and “build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states.”
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The implication was clear: If he could win in Iowa, could he win anywhere?
There is no question that Mr. Obama’s hopeful call for change inspired thousands of Iowans to attend the presidential caucuses for the first time. There is no question that his decisive victory was fueled by a fierce feeling of discontent over the nation’s direction and America’s place in the world.
But a closer inspection of the results in Iowa’s 99 counties also underscores some of the challenges that lie ahead for Mr. Obama as the presidential campaign continues beyond the early-voting states. A detailed map of the caucus results suggests that Mr. Obama’s argument was not convincing to Democrats in many rural stretches of the state.
In 30 counties — from Adams to Appanooose and Wapello to Worth — Mr. Obama fell short of John Edwards of North Carolina and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. In some precincts, Mr. Obama was separated by only a small share of delegates, yet in several other places he finished well behind his two rivals.
Iowa counties are not, necessarily, akin to a collection of red states and blue states that Mr. Obama so often talks about while he campaigns around the country. But had he not won in Iowa’s largest three counties, in addition to a strong showing along the Mississippi River in the east, the outcome would almost certainly have been different.
Over the last year, Mr. Obama’s reception in rural Iowa counties seemed to steadily improve, judging by listening to more enthusiastic applause from his audiences. At many stops, though, he would face questions from conservative Democrats about gun control and immigration and his answers did not always meet the approval of voters.
Mr. Obama’s strategists knew that some of these regions were not his strongest.
Again and again, he would turn a less-than-friendly question into an example of how he is willing to “say what people need to hear, not what they want to hear.” (This is one of the reasons his campaign sought to expand his universe of supporters beyond the traditional Iowa caucus attendees.)
Still, the record-setting turnout of 239,000 Democrats, which nearly doubled the attendance of the 2004 Iowa caucuses, is indicative of something. And winning by 8 percentage points puts Mr. Obama in a position that would be envied by his remaining rivals.
“We are choosing hope over fear,” Mr. Obama said in his remarks last night, speaking to a diverse crowd of more than 3,000 supporters. “We’re choosing unity over division, and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America.”
So as the road to the White House moved to New Hampshire early Friday, here is a lone anecdote that helps tell the story of what happened at the conclusion of the most competitive, sophisticated contest in the three-decade history of the Iowa caucuses.
Nell Boyd lives in the tiny northern Iowa town of Belmond. From the moment she saw Mr. Obama speak in October in nearby Waterloo, she said, she was sold on his candidacy and made a small contribution to his campaign, the first time she had ever given money to a politician.
At her precinct last night, 214 people signed in, compared to 72 four years ago.
The crowd, she said, was a mix of old and young, with a sprinkling of college students home on break and high school students who will be 18 by Election Day. In the end, the tally concluded in this order: Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards.
The Boyd household, perhaps, is atypical. She supported Mr. Obama, while her husband, Rex, walked into the caucus as a Clinton supporter. Before the final headcount was conducted, she said, he changed his mind and moved over to the Obama corner of the room.
In an overnight e-mail, she offered an explanation.
“Rex went to Clinton and I wore a Obama sticker. As people milled and talked, he changed before the count as he heard people stating they could not vote for someone with a last name like Obama. One said, ‘He needs to stay in Chicago and take care of his family.’
“Rex came over to Obama, where he heard not one negative bit of talk. He felt they both stand for pretty much the same ideas, but our leader needs to be positive and Obama puts that feeling out there. That is important in this world.”
With that, Ms. Boyd’s civic duties are complete, at least until November. It remains an open question which Democrat will be on the ballot when the race returns to Iowa.
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