October 21, 2006
4 PERCENT|
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PASTOR WONDERS IF EVANGELICALS CAN SURVIVE
By PAUL ASAY THE GAZETTE
Ron Luce says the Christian church is in deep trouble. The evangelical youth pastor thinks only 4 percent of today’s youth will be evangelical Christians when they grow up — and he’s shouting it across the country.
It’s an alarming number for many evangelicals, but is it true? Many church leaders have their doubts, and even Luce’s local allies sidestep the question. What is true, they say, is that youths tend to leave church about the same time they leave high school, and they want to reverse that trend.
“The question for us isn’t whether those statistics are right,” said Carolyn Haggard, media director for Colorado
Luce, who leads the Texas-based Teen Mania Ministries, is in the midst of a three-month, 42-city sweep through the country, including a recent stop in Denver, stressing demographics to pastors and church leaders. Only 4 percent of America’s 33 million teens will be evangelical Christians as adults, he says. He compares that with 34 percent of adults who are now evangelical Christians — a figure that matches findings by a recent Baylor University survey.
“Imagine America at four percent,” reads the Web site (www.battlecry.com) promoting the conference. “Church attendance dwindles. Tithes and offerings at an all-time low. New church buildings sit empty. Life-giving sermons go unheard.”
It’s a picture of a modernday exodus.
“It’s definitely a number that wakes you up,” said Alan Briggs, youth pastor for Vanguard Church in Colorado Springs.
Cook Communications Ministries, one of Colorado Springs’ largest Christian organizations, is helping spread Luce’s message. Cook publishes and markets Luce’s books, including the popular “Battle Cry for a Generation: The Fight to Save America’s Youth.”
Joan Benson, Cook’s director of marketing for children, did not say whether she thought Luce’s 4 percent figure was accurate. “What we would all agree on is the trend that that statistic represents,” she said.
Many are skeptical of Luce’s math. The 4 percent figure was pulled from “The Bridger Generation,” written by church growth expert Thom Rainer and published in 1997. Rainer told The New York Times the figure was part of a study he commissioned for the book.
Rainer, however, said there haven’t been follow-up studies, and some evangelicals wonder whether the number is being used to sell books.
“It’s certainly not bearing on what we’re seeing,” said Daniel Rolfe, youth and young adult pastor for Mountain Springs Church in east Colorado Springs. “I think it’s a little alarmist, even a little sensationalist. I don’t think it’s true.”
It doesn’t appear to be true at New Life Church, either, where the high school program serves hundreds of teens weekly.
Yet New Life’s senior pastor, the Rev. Ted Haggard, is a frequent speaker at Luce’s Teen Mania conferences, and New Life’s high school youth group recently launched a More than Four program — a nod to Luce’s statistic.
“It doesn’t really matter” whether the 4 percent figure is accurate, said Brent Parsley, who leads New Life’s high school program. “I think it’s a moment where we can pause and ask whether we’re doing a good job.”
While youth leaders say high schoolers are often involved in church, they tend to leave it as young adults. And, while Luce’s 4 percent figure may be extreme, other studies suggest faith dips among young adults.
Of the more than 80 percent of Americans who call themselves Christian, according to the Baylor study, 31 percent were members of a specific church, according to the 2004 General Social Survey by the National Opinion Research Center. That number dips to 25 percent for those between the ages of 18 and 30. The Baylor study indicates 18.6 percent of Americans ages 18-30 lack a religious affiliation, compared with just 5.4 percent of Americans 65 and older.
According to evangelical polling organization The Barna Group, 61 percent of 20-somethings who had been involved with church in high school left the fold.
“They go away to college, and by the endof their four years, they’re no longer going to church and they no longer consider themselves Christian,” said Aaron Stern, who pastors New Life’s college-age ministry, The Mill.
“There is considerable debate about whether the disengagement of 20-somethings is a lifestage issue . . . or whether it is unique to this generation,” said Barna researcher David Kinnaman in a press release. “While there is some truth to both explanations, this debate misses the point, which is that the current state of ministry to 20-somethings is woefully inadequate to address the spiritual needs of millions of young adults.”
The fact that older Americans profess faith at much higher levels than younger Americans suggests to some that the country is moving away from faith.
Others argue it has long been true that young adults tend to rediscover their faith as they grow older. But there is a sense among pastors that today’s 20-somethings are more skeptical and secular and less apt to buy into organized religion than their parents or grandparents.
There are many reasons, they say, ranging from the nation’s growing multiculturalism to the pace of modern life. Many simply stop coming when their parents stop making them come.
To help people stay involved in church in their 20s, youth leaders say they must stress its relevance to them while they’re still in high school.
Luce is emphasizing work and service, Cook officials say. There’s an emphasis on mission trips and community service projects, all done with an eye toward deepening a high school student’s faith.
“This generation is a service generation,” said Sharron Jackson, editor of teen products for Cook. “They want to exist for something larger than themselves.”
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